Managing for non-stationarity in floodplain-wetland systems:

Floodplain-wetlands are dynamic. Natural wet-dry variability means these systems cycle through wetting-wet-drying-dry phases. Plants and vegetation communities in floodplain-wetland systems have various mechanisms for coping with patterns of wetting and drying – for example the ability to resist or recover from transitions between the hydrological phases – i.e. their resilience. Given these systems are naturally dynamic, can we untangle natural variability from a loss of resilience? Can we define the bounds of resilience for non-woody vegetation as it cycles through natural wet-dry phases? Here, we explore the characteristics of non-woody vegetation and hypothesise vegetation responses, considering composition, structure and processes, through all phases of wetting-wet-drying-dry cycles, under ‘exemplar’, drier and wetter hydrological conditions. We look at case studies using data from the Flow-MER program and discuss potential ways to quantify ‘the bounds of resilience’. We believe our conceptualisation can help define expected outcomes (e.g. what are the characteristics of a functioning reed bed?), bounds of resilience (e.g. when is a reed bed no longer a reed bed?) restoration goals (e.g. how do we reinstate a reed bed?), and when transition pathways may be required (e.g. when can a reed bed no longer be supported?).

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